The US election could be decided by the votes of the USA’s Latino communities – and both John McCain and Barack Obama are campaigning hard to win as many Hispanic votes as possible.

That’s the conclusion of an in-depth report in The Globe and Mail, a Canadian national newspaper, on Tuesday – and it explains why in recent days both presidential candidates have addressed an organisation that champions the rights of Spanish-speaking American voters.

Obama told the National Council of La Raza on Sunday that, “The Latino community holds this election in your hands”. On Monday, John McCain told them, “I remain committed to fair, practical and comprehensive immigration reform [and] I think I have earned your trust.”

Spanish-speaking Americans only account for seven per cent of voters in the US election at most – but they are overwhelmingly concentrated in the “swing states”; those that UK political watchers would call “marginal”, where a small swing from Democrat to Republican or vice-versa could have a huge impact on the election results.

Why are Latinos important in the 2008 election?
Latinos make up 37 per cent of New Mexico’s electorate, 14 per cent of Florida’s and 12 per cent of both Nevada and Colorado’s – four states that went to the Republicans in 2004 and have been identified by campaign strategists, analysts and political betting fans alike as those that could decide the 2008 vote.

The consensus opinion is also that the Hispanic vote could go either way, with both candidates facing obstacles towards winning it en bloc.

John McCain’s problem is that the Republican Party is facing a backlash from Latinos angry over its anti-immigration stance of recent years. McCain cannot too heavily point out that he backed pro-immigration policies without angering his base of conservative voters.

Different problems for Obama
And Barack Obama is clearly aware of the fact that Latinos overwhelmingly preferred Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. He therefore needs to work on mobilising Hispanic Democrats who, in the absence of their preferred candidate, might just stay at home.

A rivalry also exists between the USA’s black and Hispanic communities dating back at least to the “zoot suit” riots that marred the last days of World War II. Tensions haven’t eased in recent years, with both groups over-represented among the USA’s poor, and if one group of Americans is likely to hold Obama’s race against him, it’s the Latino community.

Election promises: expensive or cheap?
It is worth watching how Hispanic groups react to being courted by Obama and McCain in the coming weeks. Community leaders will not back a candidate if they think they are just being paid lip service to. The successful candidate may need to make expensive promises regarding immigration law, healthcare and education.

But, with the White House potentially on offer to the man who wins the Latino vote, it might not be that a candidate can’t afford to make those promises – it might be that they can’t afford not to. And that could make Spanish-speaking Americans the most powerful seven per cent of the country in the next few months.

Posted in The Grandstand View