Super Tuesday looks wide open
February 4th, 2008 by Matt BennettWarning: domxml_open_mem() [function.domxml-open-mem]: StartTag: invalid element name in /home/obama/public_html/wp-content/plugins/william-hill-parser/william-hill-parser.php on line 36
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It is being billed as the most exciting primary contest in US presidential election history: Super Tuesday, Super Duper Tuesday, Giga Tuesday, Mega Giga Tuesday – even Tsunami Tuesday.
By the end of Tuesday, 5 February, more than half the results needed to elect a Democratic and Republican candidate for the race for the White House will be known – in theory, at least. And signals out of the US are suggesting that the nomination process will go all the way.
Democratic nomination uncertain for Clinton
Little more than a week ago, Hillary Clinton looked a shoe-in for the Democratic Party nomination and, in many people’s eyes, the presidency. Having recovered from the shock of an Obama victory in Iowa, she looked poised to follow up easily winning the candidacy with electoral success over whoever ended up in the Republican hotseat.
Things have changed since then. Clinton has lost ground; Obama has the momentum firmly behind him, and while the former First Lady is still in front in the polls and in the betting, a good Super Tuesday for the Illinois senator would throw the Democratic race wide open again – and hand the initiative to Obama.
It is worth recalling that in 1992, a good Super Tuesday performance helped Bill Clinton secure the Democratic nomination after poor results in the early primaries.
US election betting hots up
All of which means the day is shaping up to be an intriguing one from a betting perspective.
Bookmaker William Hill makes it odds-on that Clinton will win more or less half the states up for grabs (Hillary Clinton to win 8-15 states is a 4/7 shot). And virtually the same bet is available for Barack Obama (4/7 to win between 7 and 12 states).
This means that anyone who fancies either candidate to strongly outperform the other across the country is guaranteed a good price. Obama to win 13-18 states is currently a generous-looking 7/2.
Comeback shock in the Republican race?
The same price is available for Mitt Romney to have the best day out of all the Republican candidates. While the USA was watching Sunday’s Super Bowl, Romney quietly won his party’s Maine primary with more than half the votes counted. Current GOP favourite John McCain only just managed to beat outsider Ron Paul into second place.
Maine doesn’t have much significance in terms of the overall presidential contest – but the primary could represent a growing displeasure among Republicans.
Many party activists feel that McCain isn’t conservative enough on their key issues, and a groundswell of opinion is forming behind Romney instead.
If Romney and Obama could carry on their comebacks, Super Tuesday might lead into Worrying Wednesdays for McCain and Clinton.
The outcome of some key states could be decided by the numbers of postal votes, which wouldn’t be counted for a week or more – and would ensure the suspense continues a little while longer.
